Win or lose the season ends tonight

UNC vs Dayton

Living where I live I been hearing many Syracuse fans divided on whether it was a great season that their team had or if it was a disappointment because of the way it ended. I keep telling them that it can be both, can’t it? The same can be said for this Carolina team, just in reverse, as it might not have been a great season but it is ending well. Tonight, in the most famous arena in basketball, North Carolina (20-16) can make history if they defeat Dayton (24-12) in the National Invitation Tournament. While it won’t erase the problems this year brought it might just make them go into the background somewhat, and that too is another victory in itself. But there is something even more important to all of this, while the games have been far from perfect for the Tar Heels anyone that knows just a bit about basketball can not argue that there has been improvement with this squad, which means the future is bright for these young men and the incoming ones.

If you are lucky enough to be @CoachGusFraley or @jonithom you will be in attendance at the game, as for the rest of us, ESPN will televise the game beginning at 7:00 p.m. EST. And I hope that if you are a Tar Heel fan you do tune in and support your team without all of the negativity and just be glad that they have began to turn the corner and are heading in the right direction. But now, after all of my banter about making history, playing well, and so on and so forth, UNC’s opponent tonight is no cake walk and head coach Roy Williams and his squad need to play at their best in order to win this game. They are going to have to work hard on defense, meaning that fifth year senior Marcus Ginyard needs to play great in his farewell game. But c’mon, for both Ginyard and Thompson, after a really rocky road in their senior year what a way to go out it would be taking home a championship, even if it is the NIT.

Speaking of Thompson and his front court team mates, John Henson and Tyler Zeller, they have to be once again the bread and butter for this squad. Dayton might be a lot of things, but what they aren’t is big or deep in the the front court. Say what you want, but if UNC can once again dominate the paint as they did in the semis, the Heels will come home with the title tonight. These three bigs need to combine for 45-47 points and 23-27 rebounds tonight if they want to give their team a chance to come home victorious. Even more importantly, the Heels need to keep the Flyers off the offensive boards, something that has been an issue over the season. But having watched Dayton in the last couple of games, and even a couple of games before that, I have no problem that the war inside is going to go to Carolina, where UNC has to work harder is in other areas.

Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland have to play within themselves. Thread the needle passes make for great ESPN Top 10 material, momentum going/changers, but if they are messed up they only make for giving up easy two points to the other team. I am all for transition points, if they are there without a major chance of losing the ball to a turnover. If the fast break points are not there, set it up, look inside and let the big three work their size advantage to get the points. By all means I am not saying that Drew or Strickland have to stop running, we seen good things when the two of them have gotten in transition, what I am saying is that if it’s not there, don’t push it. Double digit scoring by both with a combined 10 assists while getting 5 or less turnovers would be a great night for these two young men in this game.

Now to the giant elephant in the room, Will Graves and Leslie McDonald. I have to say that I loved watching Graves going to the basket, he looked good and most of all he looked confident. On the other hand, his three point shooting is just off and has been that way for most of this season. He needs to hit a couple in this game, especially early on, so that the bigs do not get doubled/tripled everytime they touch the ball. As far as McDonald goes, well, I think he needs to give up the ball and maybe get it back again, because everyone knows that if he gets it he is shooting it and he has an opponent flying at him everytime he touches the ball. A fake, dribble and then shot might just be what the doctor ordered, or maybe he too could drive and see what happens. One thing is for sure, he needs to try and mix it up a bit.

Lastly, the one thing that I really want to focus on is the following: if North Carolina wants to win this game they can not miss the easy lay ups, or even worst, the dunks they have in the past games. Against Dayton leaving points on the floor that way or giving up points with bad turnovers is going to mean that UNC will not win this game. As far as Vegas is concerned North Carolina is a 2.5 points underdog, which is no big deal really, as UNC has never been a favorite in this tournament and they have done ok in it. Unlike all the other four games in this one the Tar Heels have a lot to win/lose depending on the outcome and I have to believe that it could make a difference for the team. If that was a month or so ago I would be scared of what the outcome of that pressure would be, now not so much. I think the old guard (Thompson and Ginyard) know how they want to end their career while the new guard (Henson, Zeller, Drew, Strickland) know how they want the fans to think about the future. I think it’s going to be North Carolina winning this one by 5, with the final score being 72 to 67. Over at scACCHoops they once again did their game simulation (27 times in all), with UNC winning 19 times and the average score being Carolina 66.2 Dayton 58.3, once the game went into overtime.

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