UNC vs URI for a chance at the NIT Title
MSG
At the beginning of the season, when Carolina stepped foot on the hardwoods in the mecca of the basketball world no one thought it would be the first of two trips the Heels would make to Madison Square Garden. But that is how the season turned out for head coach Roy Williams and his squad, and tonight, when North Carolina (19-16) takes on Rhode Island (26-9), with the winner will get a chance to play for the NIT Title, this game is going to mean different things to each team (but for that later). Again, this is definitely not what the coaching staff, the team or the fans thought would happen or wanted at the beginning of this season. On the other hand, after a shaky second half of the season, what the Tar Heels have shown in the first three games of this tournament is they know how to play “as one”, and are doing it, for better or worst, on both sides of the ball. As I have said too many times this season, the key phrase is “it is what it is”, and what it is right now is a chance for Carolina to make an unexpected run in a tournament a lot of its own fans didn’t want them in. Coach knows that while knowing this three game run in the NIT hasn’t erased the rest of the season, it has given both the coaching staff and the players a new outlook on the season and the off-season:
“We’re pleased to still be playing,” Williams said. “Our team has played awfully hard. I’m so proud of them the last couple of games. It’s something we have to build habits on.”
Tuesday night, at about 9:15 p.m. EST, these two teams will tip off and for me at least, for a lot of people probably, the 19 wins or the 16 losses won’t matter, just the 40 minutes in front of us. As you can check out on Tar Heel Fan‘s blog, 28 years ago yesterday Dean Smith won his first title. Tonight, while the stage is definitely not the same one, the magnitude either, the game goes along the same path in this: “perseverance pays off”. For coach Smith all the years it took to get that first title, for coach Williams all the time it took to right this season.
The Rams love running up and down the court, while they are stingy in giving up the ball while doing it. On the other hand too many times over the season we have seen unforced turnovers by the Heels when trying the run n gun tempo of previous seasons. If making the tempo of the game isn’t the biggest storyline for both of these teams I am not sure what can be. Meaning that Larry Drew, who has been playing rather well in the last couple of games, and Dexter Strickland, who has also picked up his game, need to have yet again another great game. Besides playing well on offense, something that they are getting better and better at both of these young men have to play well on the defensive side of the ball. And when you talk about defense, you have to talk about Marcus Ginyard, as the fifth year senior needs to step it up and play well when Rhode Island has the ball. While so much as been made about what this and that big man does not do right for UNC I for one have always looked at the fact that if Larry Drew has a good night it usually means that they will come home with a W, if he does not well, let’s just say we have talked about that way too much this season.
How many times have you heard fans, commentators, analysts, people “in the know” use the phrase “you can’t team height”? If I had a penny for each time I have heard it is all I can say. What all of these tv and radio talking heads forgot to add is that while you can’t teach height you have to teach the smaller guys to bring up the ball and get it to those tall guys in the paint. And while this paragraph might have been a bit over the top what I am just trying to say is that guard on a good night can help out the big man a lot more than a big man on a good night can help out his point guard. Deon Thompson, John Henson, Tyler Zeller can all be ready to have the game of their lives, it is up to Drew and Strickland to get them the ball and let them loose. I am pretty sure that during the Rams’ season they have found some gritty, hard working guards in their paths, I am not so sure that they have had to handle what UNC is going to give them down low in the post. It’s always been my theory that in the paint is the bread and butter of Carolina, and I think tonight it will once again be that way.
How is that going to happen? By having Thompson, Henson and Zeller all scoring in double figures (I would like to see 45 combined) and having them get 25-28 rebounds, keeping URI off the offensive glass and getting Rhode Island’s seven foot center in foul trouble quickly. But the Heels need to worry about a couple of other Rams as well, 6’4″ senior guard Keith Cothran, who leads his team with 14 PPG, and 6’8″ junior forward Delroy James (13 PPG ~ 5 RPG). While the guard hasn’t had his best times during the tournament, the junior is scoring over 21 points in the NIT and is playing has hard as he can. James has hit 1/2 of his three point attempts (7 for 14) and is 76% from the charity stripe. If there is one thing that can help UNC out is that the junior forward finds a way to get fouls almost as much as a way to get open for a shot. Cothran seems to be the heart and soul of the Rams, his scoring dips by over three points anytime URI has lost this year, while his shooting goes down by close to 10% (46% to 36.4%). While I forsee a lot of Heels taking on James to get him into foul trouble I have to believe that Cothran is going to be hounded by Ginyard in this game.
This is by no means an easy game, especially if Will Graves and Leslie McDonald struggle from beyond the arc once again. Can it be won by UNC? Sure, as long as the guards do not give the ball up for easy baskets and the bigs can control the boards on both ends of the floor. But as we know all of this is pretty easy to write, enjoyable to read, but to put into affect and played out is a bit more of a challenge. As well as it should when you think about it, this is the semi finals of the National Invitation Tournament, and while it’s not the same of spotlight as the NCAA might have, it is still in front of a very large crowd, who wants to see two good teams battle it out, and that is exactly what I see happening tomorrow night in New York City.
Who is going to win this one? After having checked with the Vegas odds makers, who have the game even right now, I am going to go with North Carolina, who is 27-9 at MSG, for one reason and one reason only: this is all gravy to them. Yes, I said it, this is all extra, playing with the bank’s money, add your own quote in here. The coaching staff didn’t know if they would be going, a heck of a lot of fans didn’t want them going, and now they have won 3 in a row, two in a row on the road after having won two of the first 11 games outside of the Smith Center. To Rhode Island, especially for their freshman Akeem Richmond (who was a UNC ball boy growing up in Sanford), the big deal is getting the the NIT Final Four. To North Carolina the big deal is having gelled into a team that has proven many doubters wrong. Two very different things for two very different programs.So, look for the Heels to win by 8, with the final score being 73 to 65, and from one of my favorite sites, scACCHoops comes word that: after 20 sims of the UNC/RI matchup, we get an avg score of UNC 73.2 RI 64.7. Heels won 14 out of 20.
In the end, in a season where a lot of the people that bleed Carolina Blue put in doubt whether this team would finish above .500, with a win tomorrow the Tar Heels will have reached 20 wins on the season, and I am sure I would not be far off when I say that is a goal very few believed could be possible for this squad.
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