UNC looks to go .500 in the ACC

UVa vs UNC

In their last game, which UNC won against their in-state rivals NC St., a lot was shown from this young and talented team about being able to step up to the plate. Tonight, when North Carolina (13-7 ~ 2-3 in the ACC) hosts Virginia (13-7 ~ 3-2 in the ACC) in the friendly confine of the Dean Dome (tip off time of 7:45 p.m. EST – televised by Fox) , this squad must show that they can be consistent at stepping up to the plate. If that happen head coach Roy Williams’ team will be back to .500 in conference play and back in the mix of the ACC. Believe it or not, but by defeating the Cavaliers the Heels would be beating the team that was atop of the ACC last week. I doubt anyone would have thought that before the season began, then again, I doubt too many were thinking that the Heels would be below .500 in the conference either. Fortunately we can say “what a difference a week makes” as UVa has lost two in a row while UNC won their first true road game of the year.

But before we celebrate the next Carolina win let’s not forget that Virginia is not going to be a pushover by any means. From what I have seen of UVa this year is that they do not tend to lose the ball too often, and we all know what happens when UNC loses the turnover battle. This means that be it Larry Drew II or Dexter Strickland or whomever else must protect the ball and push the tempo at the same time, something that I think can be done as long as the Heels do not start out by having 2-3 turnovers right away. UVa also has sophomore guard Sylven Landesberg, a 6’6″ guard that fits the model of the ones that give coach Williams’ squads fits. Once again the UNC defense needs to step up, and while I am pretty sure that Landsberg is going to get 20 points in this game (he is averaging 17.6), the key are two here: do not let him go off for more than 20-23, and do not let any other Cav have a career night. Of course, if you check the Wahoos’ schedule, the other way to keep the long guard from causing too much havoc is to get him into foul trouble, as he had 4 and 5 in the last two games, but still managed 18 points per game.

For North Carolina the key is to get this game in the mid to high 80′s as Virginia is not a high scoring team, averaging just over 70 points per game. Again, as I said before, Drew and Strickland need to push the ball while staying in control. Playing at the Dean Dome should help that a lot, getting an early lead could also be very good for the tandem handling the ball. But when it comes to scoring we have to look inside first, or in other words, look at Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. The duo need to come out of this game with a high teen scoring performance, or say, 35 points or more between them. Add to that 15 rebounds and 3-5 blocks. While for Drew and Strickland I like to see high teens in points combined (18), while having double digit assists and committing 4 or less turnovers as a pair. If we do some math 35 and 18 makes it 53, so where are the Heels going to get the rest of the points from? Twenty of them will come from the other two players that get plenty of minutes, Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves, while the rest will come from the combo of the Wear twins and John Henson, who I see having a good game tonight. And for those that have been on Ginyard’s case for most of the season, it’s going to be up to the fifth year senior to guard Landsberg, and if he can do the job I think he can I hope he gets some slack.

This game is as close to a must win for the Tar Heels as there can be this season, especially when you look at what is coming up for them in the next two weeks. VaTech and Maryland on the road followed by Duke at home is going to be a tough stretch as they are the third, first and second team in the conference, with a combined record of 47 and 12, 12 and 5 in the ACC. It would not be much of a stretch to say that those three games will probably determine what will be the faith of UNC for the rest of the season. Between the four games at hand having a .500 or better record would be good. And it is pretty evident by this quote that the players know what they have to do:

“What we need right now is wins,” junior Will Graves said. “That is what we need more than anything.”

Talking on twitter yesterday I saw that North Carolina State didn’t have much of a crowd at their game (some people said just a 1,000 people in the stands). While I doubt that something close to that would happen at the Dean Dome tonight, the possibility exist that the place won’t be as filled as it would be under normal weather. I hope that enough of the fan base is at the game that one of the biggest out of the game factors, home field advantage, is still on the Heels’ side. In about 12 hours we will know if the Heels are back in the race, or back under the screws of the fans. The Vegas odds makers have Carolina as a 8.5 points favorite, I think that they will win in double digits as Virginia will have to play catch up and be out of their slow down type of game and out of their enviroment of play. Final: UNC 82 UVa 68.

Shortlink: