MSU vs UNC, this is beginning to be a habit

How many times do teams have to play in two years in order to make people wonder if this is becoming a sort of rivalry? If you say three, then tonight’s Top 10 match up between #9 Michigan State (5-1) and #10 North Carolina (6-1) classifies as one. The two programs met last year in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge at Ford Field (won by UNC 98 to 63), they met again on that same field to play for the national championship (won by Carolina 89 to 72) and now they meet up at the Dean Dome for this year’s ACC/Big 10 Challenge. When you look at the games from last year, the fact that UNC has lost most of its starters from then while MSU has three of them back, one has to believe that Michigan State’s head coach Tom Izzo is going to use the revenge card on his players.

On the other hand, head coach Roy Williams does not need to remind his team that MSU might be out for revenge, because, as I said before, most of the starters from the national championship team are gone, and the players that are back from that team want to make their own history while at Chapel Hill. So, while I think the “revenge factor” can be something that the media and maybe the Spartans’ coaching staff can use, it only goes so far. No win, however small or big, tonight will make up for the fact that Carolina has another national championship and Michigan State does not. All of this is great to hype up the game, and with Dick Vitale calling it, you know the hype is going to be used from the first time he speaks until ESPN goes to another program cause the game is over.

The reality is that when UNC and MSU get down to playing this game tonight (tip off is at 9:00 p.m. EST) Larry Drew II, Marcus Ginyard, and whomever else plays in the back court will have their hands full as the Spartans are truly loaded when it comes to guards:

Starters:
1 Kalin Lucas (6’0″/190 lbs): 17.2 ppg, 3.7 apg
15 Durrell Summers (6’4″/205 lbs): 13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg
Reserves:
3 Chris Allen (6’3″/205 lbs): 12.3 ppg
34 Korie Lucious (5’11″/170 lbs): 6.2 ppg, 5.3 apg

And the front court for the Heels will also need to be on top of their game, with the Spartans averaging 16 offensive rebounds per game. If that was to happen tonight UNC would be in serious trouble in this game. Michigan State also is scoring close to 18 second chance points per game in the first six contest they have played. The one thing that Michigan St. does not have against Carolina is size, as their best offensive players are all in the 6’8″ range and that should be a plus for the Heels. But still, the numbers say that the Spartans aren’t to be fooled with on the defensive side of the ball, and against a team with good guard play and an explosive front court Carolina needs to “go back to basics” and play fundamentally sound basketball on both sides of the court. Drew and Ginyard must protect the ball and make the right passes at the right time. Sloppy ball handling and weak passes are just going to be gifts. For the big men, find your man and box him out. Two hands on the ball, look for the outlet, and always be on the alert.

I think the keys are two:

• Can the UNC’s backcourt step it up, break any pressure put against them and get the ball to their bigs. If the answer is more yes than no I think that coach Izzo will have to put his team into a zone and that is going to limit his back court from harassing Drew (or whomever else), giving the home team a big advantage.
• Can the height advantage that the Tar Heels possess be used to wear down the Spartans’ starters (both physically and by getting them into foul trouble). If the answer here is yes again it would make sense that Carolina could definitely take advantage of points in the paint as well as keep Michigan St. off the offensive boards.

The insiders in Vegas have North Carolina a two point favorite, I see it being pretty close as well, with the Heels pulling it out at the end by the final of 81 to 76. One last key to this game is going to be the charity stripe, and there I give the advantage to UNC as well.

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