It’s UNC vs OU, the winner is heading to Detroit

Tomorrow it’s going to be top seed North Carolina (31-4), who arrived at this game by defeating #16 Radford 101-58 (Rnd 1), defeating #8 LSU 84-70 (Rnd 2), defeating #4 Gonzaga 98-77 (Sweet 16), taking on second seeded Oklahoma (30-5), which beat the following teams in order to be here: defeating #15 Morgan State 82-54 (Rnd 1), defeating #10 Michigan 73-63 (Rnd 2), defeating #3 Syracuse 84-71 (Sweet 16). The winner of this game is going to be heading to Detroit, to Ford Field, the Final Four. The game will be the second one on CBS with the announcing crew being composed of Jim Nantz (play by play) and Clark Kellogg (analyst). Tip off time is at approximately 5:05 p.m. EST, right after the game between #1 Louisville and #2 Michigan State. The winners of these two games will join Connecticut and Villanova to make up the remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament. In other words this is it, it’s getting down to the nitty gritty, and through it all Carolina has survived and moved on. The question on every Tar Heel’s mind is: will they be able to do it again against the Sooners? My answer will be in this post.
 
I will say this, the buzz since Carolina beat Gonzaga has turned from Lawson’s toe (fortunately) to the match up between Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin, the reigning NPOY and probably the future NPOY. What I say about this is, if the game becomes a match up between these two players then UNC is playing into Oklahoma’s game plan. What the Heels need to do is have these two players cancel one another, and then go down the line, position per position, and you will see that Carolina has the advantage at every spot on the line up. If Carolina plays the “Carolina Way” they are going to win this game, because UNC has never been built that one player will determine whether they win or not.

 
The Tar Heels have several players that can take over on their roster. From the speedster Lawson, to his counterpart at the guard spot, Wayne Ellington, to Hansbrough and to even Danny Green, now that it seems that he has once again found his shot from the outside. It’s true that Griffin is a monster when it comes to getting rebounds, it’s also true that Hansbrough can shoot the mid range shot, so that is one way of pulling the Oklahoma big man out from under the basket. A high post screen from Hansbrough with Lawson having the ball, will Griffin switch and try to stay with the speedster, or will he stay and leave the lane open for Lawson?
 
Will Griffin score his points? Most likely, so what UNC has to do is not have others on the team have “season high performances” like SU allowed Oklahoma to have. If Griffin has to fight a one on five game because he is the go to guy and North Carolina is going to spread it around he won’t win this game. I also think that the speed of Lawson is going to make the difference once again, and it’s going to lead to easy baskets and extra fouls that the Sooners’ players aren’t used to playing with. This team has been through so much this season that having to prove themselves one more time isn’t a burden, it’s becoming a pleasure. That’s right, it has to feel good as the analysts, commentators and experts went from crowning Carolina in the pre season, to not giving it much of a chance, to now having to come back as the rest of the teams fall by the wayside.
 
The Vegas line right now is at about 6.5 points, and I think that’s going to be the way the game goes, a good, hard fought game that in the end no one will be able to pull too far ahead. I am thinking it’s going to be UNC, but that will be determined tomorrow afternoon. Here are some of my keys for this game:
 
Lawson’s speed and leadership. The junior point guard has shown he knows when to go to the rim, when to hit the three and when to get the ball to his team mates (be it on the inside or on the perimeter). Those skills will be of great use in the game against Oklahoma.
 
Bread & Butter. Hansbrough might not be the “inside man” in this one, but that does not mean that the rest of the bigs cannot get their points. I think that in this game the combo of Deon Thompson and Ed Davis (along with how much Tyler Zeller plays) might be more important than anything else in this match up.
 
The shooters. To all of those that are going to be shooting from the outside, make them count, when you hit you make the rest of the game easier for all. Ellington has had a great tournament, Green seems to be back, Frasor hit two clutch ones against Gonzaga, Lawson also had his and even Larry Drew showed the Bulldogs that he could pop the three. Tomorrow if this team can match that effort they will make the OU guards have to work a lot more than they are used to.
 
The Carolina Way. Play as a team. Start the offense from the inside. Play for one another. Make the extra pass to the open man. All of those things that have made this team special can now make this team one of the four going to Detroit.
 
And I will finish with this thought. I see North Carolina winning this game for this reason: because if Hansbrough loses the match up with Griffin the Heels still have the man power to overcome that. If Griffin ties or loses the match up there is no way that the rest of the Sooners can overcome that. Which to me means that overall UNC has the better players in the game, and while I am not saying that Oklahoma is going to lose, if the two teams play even it’s going to be Carolina punching their ticket to Detroit.

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