When North Carolina (8-4 ~ 4-4 in the ACC) takes the field tomorrow at Bank of America Stadium (in Charlotte) to take on #17 Pittsburgh (9-3 ~ 5-2 in the Big East) it will be the twenty-seventh time it plays in a bowl game. On the other hand it will be the first time in over a decade since the Heels have been in back to back bowl games. For the second time in two season head coach Butch Davis will be playing in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against a tough Big East opponent. Last year UNC came close to a win, losing 31 to 30 to a very good West Virginia team. The game showed the football world how good Hakeem Nickswas. Tomorrow at 4:30 (televised on ESPN) Carolina will need to show that their defense is as good as it gets if it wants to defeat Pitt (who is a three points favorite according to Vegas).
For those of us that love this sport all I can say is: welcome to the thick of the bowl games and for North Carolina welcome to a chance to prove that they are the team most people believed they were this pre-season. Under coach Davis North Carolina has been defeating ranked teams, if they are able to pull off this one, it will be six in a row, third this season, something that in Chapel Hill has not happened in 30 years. In order to do so it’s going to take two things: the best defense in the ACC has to have a great game (the best they played this season) and for T.J. Yates to manage the team without giving up bad/costly turnovers. If those things can happen I truly think that UNC can win the game tomorrow. If those things don’t happen this is going to be a tough one to digest for the coaching staff and the players.
For the defense this means they will have to take on Sporting News’ Freshman of the Year Dion Lewis (tailback) and keep him from having a great game, something that is not going to be easy looking at his numbers: 1,640 & 17 touchdowns. Let’s be realistic in this, I doubt that Lewis can be fully stopped, UNC needs to contain him from having a career game. But we can not forget the Pitt QB, Bull Stull, who has also had a good season with 2,470 yards, 21 touchdown and only 8 INTs. And unlike the Tar Heels, the Panthers’ offensive line has not miss a start all season, and they are a main reason to this year’s success. If there is a game where you can truly say that who wins in the trenches wins the game this one might just be it.
Is UNC going to be able to contain the running game and pressure the QB without having to use too many blitz schemes? Or is Pitt going to be able to protect their quarterback as they have all season long? This is what the head man of North Carolina had to say about the opposing running back:
“He is very fast,” said UNC’s Davis, who compares Lewis to former Miami Hurricane running back Clinton Portis. “He’s got excellent vision. The thing you see with a really talented running back is that if you block a play for a 6-7-8 yard gain, some guys can turn that into 12 or 15, and some guys can turn it into 50. He’s one of those guys – he’s very dangerous.”
Flipping the scenario Yates is going to have to play sharp as Pittsburgh will come after him time after time, and it is going to be on Ryan Houston to move the ball so that his quarterback can get some extra time to throw the ball. If the Panthers go up early and the Tar Heels have to begin to throw to catch up it’s going to be a long, long day for the Carolina offense. I know in the end if North Carolina can not move the ball it’s going to rest on Yates’ shoulders (meaning the fan base will pin him as the culprit), but this one is going to have to be a team effort, because if the Heels can not move the ball on the ground or drop passes they shouldn’t it’s going to cost them dearly.
Can this group do some damage to the Pitt D? I would say they could because somehow the Panthers are prone to find ways to lose games they shouldn’t, but they are not prone to giving them away at no cost. This is what Butch Davis said about the opposing defense for the upcoming game:
“Clearly, Pitt’s defense is really good,” Davis said. “They are big and physical, lead the nation in sacks and can put pressure on the quarterback. Subsequently, the completion percentage of the quarterbacks is not very good. They limit your ability to make big plays because you do not have the ball very long.”
All of this is going to be played out on the field and I think it’s going to be a great chess match between two head coaches (UNC’s Davis and Pitt’s Dave Wannsted) who have worked together for many years decades ago. Both of these coaches were on the same staff under Jimmy Johnson when he was at Oklahoma State, when winning a title in Miami and a Super Bowl in Dallas.
In the end I am going to say that North Carolina pulls off the mild upset mostly because they are just a bit more motivated than Pittsburgh, with the final score being 27 to 21 for the Tar Heels. I am not sure if this is going to be the prettiest of games, due to the fact that both squads have “in your face” defenses that are going to create problems for the other team. What I am sure is that both coaches want to win, both teams are somewhat similar (due to the coaches coming from the same coaching tree) and most of all, the Carolina program is moving up, and if they could win this one it would be the first time in a dozen year that UNC would have nine (or more wins) in a season.
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